Hank Fishkind is a Florida based economist who concentrates most of his attention on the Sunshine State.  His local focus and unimpressive track record would normally make him uninteresting fodder; especially for the rest of the country.

But Hank merits attention for several reasons.

1. He was and remains a noisy economist within one of the markets most affected by the decade-long Housing Bubble

2. He is representative of many backward-looking, academic economists nationally who:

• Failed to understand that there was a Housing Bubble
• Did not believe that housing prices could fall
• Lack a dynamic understanding of the forces which continue to undermine the economy
• Have declared the housing bust over repeatedly since 2006
• Are perpetual housing cheerleaders

3. He has assembled a wretched track record since 2004 with respect to the Housing Bubble, and has done so publicly, with a flair for the dramatic.  I consider him to be the Washington Nationals of Economists.

In addition, I hold Hank accountable for his predictions as a public service to Floridians who deserve access to an informed understanding of his abysmal track record.  

A Complicit Media

If Hank peddled his theories only to institutional clients he would merit no further attention.  But Fishkind enjoys seeing his name in the paper and shamelessly promotes his baseless projections. 

The tragedy is that readers are unaware that Hank is a fraud, because the complicit Florida media has abdicated its responsibility to the public.  Hank is a readily available quote/story, and other than lying about his record during 2008, a likeable guy.

As such, the media portrays Fishkind as an expert and lends him credibility by promoting his perpetually rosy housing expectations.  Readers, who in general lack the analytical wherewithal to understand complex housing valuation issues, rely on local newspapers for objective analysis and credible sources.  Sadly, each year since 2004 some number of Floridians have bought a house partly due to Fishkind's reprinted recommendations. 

No reasonable person, having reviewed Fishkind's record in detail, would conclude that he is either an expert on housing or a competent economist.  But many Florida residents have made the worst financial decision of their lives based partly on his "expertise" and promoted expectations.

Fishkind's track record in his own words:




Beyond making absurd predictions based on his lack of economic understanding, Hank has resorted to concocting fantastical reasons for why his premonitions never seem to come to fruition.  He attributed his failed "this is what the bottom looks like" premonition to the collapse of Lehman Brothers, even though the event occurred long after his prediction was demonstrated to be incorrect.  Florida real estate had been in a free-fall for 11 months prior to the Lehman disaster.

Fishkind Declares Recession Over Last November

Fishkind's latest folly was a classic case of oblivious bravado.  53 weeks ago on June 7th, 2009, Hank declared that the recession would end at 8:30 in the morning on Nov. 19th, 2009.  His definition for the recession's end was based on the expectation that first-time unemployment claims would fall to 350,000 a week; a level purportedly consistent with sustainable job creation.  He then waffled with the caveat that 350,000 claims would be reached within 6 months of Nov. 19th.   



After denying the existence of the Housing Bubble, refuting the likelihood of its collapse, and then calling the bottom in 2006, 2007 and 2008, Mr. Fishkind predicted that the recession would be over on a specific date in 2009, based on an unemployment compensation report that was largely irrelevant due to deficit-financed, stimulus spending.

The AMD.com observed in July 2009 that Mr. Fishkind’s November prediction would "be wrong giving him a record of seven straight years of analytical incompetence.  This time around though he has given himself plenty of waffling room with his bold “six months one way or the other” caveat.  As such, we will have to wait until May 2010 to once again highlight his buffoonery."

A year has passed and it is time to review Fishkind's latest Folly.

Hank missed his November prediction by 159,000 and his 12 month window terminated with first-time unemployment claims 124,000 above the 350,000 level he believed would indicate an end to the recession. 

• Fishkind was wrong about his Nov. 19th
• His self-identified 12 month window (based on his defined parameters) has expired
• First-time unemployment claims never approached the 350,000 he predicted and promoted

Dismal Reality

Beyond failing to predict these arbitrary figures, Fishkind displays a complete lack of understanding regarding what is actually occurring within the economy.

The Federal Government continues to manipulate economic output and employment figures with unsustainable, deficit-financed stimulus spending.  Fishkind's prediction could actually have come to fruition had the Government accrued another $1 trillion in debt, but the distorted employment figure would not have signaled an end to the recession, nor a genuine recovery.

In reality, a year after Fishkind's latest blunder, sustainable economic fundamentals continue to erode. 

• Unemployment and underemployment are high and may rise
• Foreclosures continue to set new records
• Housing prices are falling following the Obama Administration's brief manipulation
• Stimulus spending is winding down, census hiring coming to an end and the day of reckoning is rapidly approaching for bloated state and local governments
• Consumer spending is contracting
• Credit availability continues to shrink for the first time since The Great Depression

There is no recovery, but I do not expect economic fundamentals to alter Hank's perpetually optimistic stupor or deter his pursuit of an 8th straight year of ineptitude.

Few forces in nature are as consistent as Mr. Fishkind's record of incompetence.  The only mystery that remains is how much longer news sources will continue to lend credence to Hank's “economic expertise”?
 

Link to past Fishkind Follies