Despite being a harbinger of economic doom and gloom since the summer of 2005, I was consistently optimistic about the future of the United States.  I viewed the inevitable reversal of unsustainable economic distortions during a Global Depression as a good thing.  I assumed that once asset values deflated to sustainable levels, excess credit was eliminated, and glorified momentum investors had been exposed as frauds, the world would be a better place. 

It did not occur to me to start a blog while I was developing and proselytizing my economic expectations.  When I finally considered the idea, I was unable to generate a compelling reason to engage in the activity.  I am not self-promotional, (which may be difficult for the reader to believe) and was perfectly content articulating my understanding of the economy and predictions for the future amongst family, friends and co-workers.  Furthermore, I expected to benefit from my research as "the greatest wealth generating opportunity of my lifetime" transpired over the coming years.  

Origin of TheAffordableMortgageDepression.com

I chose to begin publishing The Affordable Mortgage Depression in October 2008 because the Government’s response to the inevitable deflation of the Housing, Credit and Consumer Spending Bubbles infuriated me.  I believed that the unified efforts to re-inflate the financial bubble, prevent the markets from clearing, extend credit to the over leveraged, distribute stimulus checks, increase government spending, and bail-out or nationalize companies would have the effect of making our economic situation worse. 

I recognized that the economic downturn was being manipulated for political gain and the causes of the crisis were being grossly mischaracterized.  The Government largely created our housing and banking problems.  Yet when the pain from this intervention materialized, policy makers used the volatility expediently to blame, and attempt to further subvert, the free markets. 

Blog's Primary Purposes

There is a persistent lack of understanding about the origins and forces which created The Affordable Mortgage Depression.  My intention is to:

• Demonstrate when the Housing Bubble actually began
• Explain what caused the Housing, Consumer Spending and Credit Bubbles 
• Highlight the mechanisms that allowed the economic phenomenon to develop and persist 
• Document the distortions which the bubbles produced
• Describe what will inevitably occur as these distortions reverse themselves  
• Interpret current events in the context of the ongoing economic downturn
• Discuss the historical parallels between The Affordable Mortgage Depression and The Great Depression
• Achieve the above goals in a quirky, entertaining and occasionally humorous fashion

I am further attempting to demonstrate that the political response to the economic downturn will be as damaging, if not more so, than the Depression itself.  Government intervention within the mortgage and lending industries created both the Housing Bubble and the current economic downturn.  Given this understanding, rapidly expanding regulation and centralized economic control is a frightening prospect. 

Author’s Background

I have earned a BA from Vanderbilt (Economics), a MBA from Yale (Finance & Strategy) and the CFA Designation.  My professional experience includes Investment Banking, Merchant Banking and Equity Research.  I am presently unemployed.

For a decade I have demonstrated an ability to predict future economic events, and solve challenging financial and valuation problems based on a thorough understanding of the relevant issues.  My expectations regarding the Global Depression, based on the Affordable Mortgage thesis, have been validated from 2005 through the present.  I continue to believe my vision of impending future events will come to fruition based on this framework for understanding our current economic reality.