We are two and a half months into Hank Fishkind’s latest prediction of economic recovery.  Mr. Fishkind, a Florida-based economist and unintentional comedian, has assembled an impressive record misdiagnosing the Housing Market and underestimating the damage caused by its collapse over the past six years.  His latest blunder, a prediction that the Recession would end on November 14th based on a decline in unemployment claims to 350,000 per week, was “icing on the cake” for Fishkind’s wretched 2009. 



The Affordable Mortgage Depression framework of economic understanding enabled the prediction that Mr. Fishkind’s November prognostication would be wrong.  Based on this understanding, should the Government manipulate weekly unemployment claims down to 350,000, that figure would be irrelevant in confirming a sustainable recovery as long as undistorted economic fundamentals continue to erode.

The question at hand is whether Fishkind can extend his remarkable record into 2010?  Fortunately we don’t have to wait much longer to find out.  Hank waffled on his prediction of a November recover when he originally issued it in June 2009.  The bold statement included the caveat that it might not be realized for “six months one way or the other”.  We are two-thirds through this yawning 12 month window and rapidly approaching Fishkind’s May 2010 deadline.   

Few forces in nature are as consistent as Mr. Fishkind, so the only mystery that remains is how much longer news sources will continue to lend credence to Hank’s “economic expertise”?


(Links which highlight Mr. Fishkind’s track record)