The Obama Administration continues to tout last month’s decline in the unemployment rate as both a positive trend and an affirmation of Stimulus Spending.  The President’s assertions demonstrate a lack of economic understanding and an eagerness to repeat foolish conclusions which may be spun for momentary political gain.  

I note that in July (4 months ago) the unemployment rate dropped to 9.4% from 9.5% in June and we were pitched the same song and dance.

August 7, 2009 - MSNBC

President Barack Obama told the nation Friday that the "worst may be behind us" on the recession after the unemployment rate dipped for the first time in 15 months.

"Today we're pointed in the right direction," Obama said in an address on the economy from Rose Garden, a few hours after the Labor Department reported the unemployment rate for July declined to 9.4 percent from 9.5 percent in June. 

The unemployment rate (10.0%) has increased 17 of the last 19 months (and 3 of the last four) yet we are told that 1 month of employment gains are a trend and that $800 billion of Stimulus (spent to keep unemployment below 8%) is a success. 

Parsing Holiday Season Unemployment Data

The busiest and most profitable time of year for most retailers is the Holiday season from Thanksgiving through New Years.  Retailers hire part-time and seasonal workers during the period to satisfy increased demand.  Those excess positions are eliminated after the Christmas shopping season is concluded. 

Example:  “Overqualified, But Happy to Have a Holiday Job” – MSNBC

There are thousands of former investment bankers, real estate investors, blackjack dealers and construction laborers who have been hired on a part-time basis at HoneyBaked Ham, UPS and fruitcake factories nationwide.  These people are momentarily considered to be employed but will again be counted amongst the jobless come January.

People Who Give Up are Not “Unemployed”

I find it interesting that during November the number of discouraged workers increased by 53,000 to 861,000.  Discouraged workers are people who have given up looking for a job because they do not believe one is available in the current economic environment.  According to the Government these people are not unemployed.  The more people who become discouraged the lower the unemployment rate.