Reminder: Economist Hank Fishkind Declares Depression Over in 21 Days
According to Mr. Fishkind the economic downturn will end on November 19th. On that day the Labor Department will report that new unemployment insurance claims have fallen to 350,000 and the economy will begin adding jobs.
(A detailed analysis of his June pronouncement)
While his predictions are always optimistic and in this case boldly entertaining, Henry’s track record of economic prognostications since 2004 has been less than stellar.
Mr. Fishkind has become the Hamilton Burger of economists. His record of consistently declaring an end to the Housing Recession could make The Washington Generals jealous. In the present, only the Detroit Lions can truly appreciate his dogged consistency.
While the unemployment claims trend does favor Mr. Fishkind’s optimism over the long term, I note that the improvement has come at the expense of $800 billion in new debt from stimulus spending. This debt will act as a negative drag on the economy as long as it is being serviced and/or repaid. Meanwhile the Government sponsored jobs being “created” are neither productive or sustainable. As such, Mr. Fishkind’s proposed recovery more closely resembles a fairy tale than economic understanding. Until net jobs are being created by the private sector, based on market conditions unencumbered by Government distortions, the economic malaise will continue.
(A detailed analysis of his June pronouncement)
While his predictions are always optimistic and in this case boldly entertaining, Henry’s track record of economic prognostications since 2004 has been less than stellar.
Mr. Fishkind has become the Hamilton Burger of economists. His record of consistently declaring an end to the Housing Recession could make The Washington Generals jealous. In the present, only the Detroit Lions can truly appreciate his dogged consistency.
While the unemployment claims trend does favor Mr. Fishkind’s optimism over the long term, I note that the improvement has come at the expense of $800 billion in new debt from stimulus spending. This debt will act as a negative drag on the economy as long as it is being serviced and/or repaid. Meanwhile the Government sponsored jobs being “created” are neither productive or sustainable. As such, Mr. Fishkind’s proposed recovery more closely resembles a fairy tale than economic understanding. Until net jobs are being created by the private sector, based on market conditions unencumbered by Government distortions, the economic malaise will continue.
Does the unemployment data consider claims that have ceased due to the expired time frame they allow one to collect unemployment?
If you claimed unemployment last year than you may no longer be able to make a claim if you have received your maximum benefit. Do they include that?
What about folks who just stopped making claims because they got tired of having to deal with yet another terribly operated bureaucratic agency that will not answer your phone or call you back.
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MM,
You raise interesting issues. The weekly unemployment insurance claims data captures incremental people week-to-week who have lost their jobs AND filed for unemployment benefits. These people are easy to count.
The cumuluative data suffers from all the issues which you identify.
As far as I can determine the Government uses statistical models to estimate many of its measures of unemployment. The question is how good are these estimates and what do they ignore.
I have often wondered if the Government has EVER accounted for me as a member of the unemployed, and if so where I have been classified. I resigned from my job over a year ago (the company had an unsustainable business model) and have not claimed unemployment or other welfare benefits. I have never been contacted by a representative of the Department of Labor and can not imagine a way that the Government might capture me for its statistics. I presume that the estimated unemployment rate does not include me. If I have been ignored, I am sure many others have been as well.
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