The Homeownership Bubble - An Economic Crisis Explained

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I continue to be mesmerized by analysis of U.S. Homeownership Rates.  The data clearly:

  • Establishes when the Housing Bubble began
  • Reveals a point of origination where a reasonable person would begin to search for an explanation for the spike in homeownership
  • Highlights how dramatic the inflection point was 
  • Demonstrates the extraordinarily steep slope of those gains
  • Documents homeownership rates establishing a U.S. record of 66.0% in 3Q97
  • Provides an understanding as to why housing prices began to rise at an unsustainable pace in 1997
  • Contrasts the U.S. economy's supportable homeownership range of 63.5% - 65.0% with the Housing Bubble peak of 69.2%

The data also provides insight into where we are in the downturn and a perspective on when it is likely to end.

Historically the U.S. economy has supported a structurally sustainable Homeownership range of 63.5% to 65.0%.  The current ownership rate is 67.3%.  Due to a reversion to pre-bubble market conditions, that rate will fall at minimum to 65%.  Based on an understanding of the Boom-Bust cycle dynamic, I continue to believe that Homeownership Rates will decline to below 64% over the next several years to devastating effect.



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