Comment received on Fishkind's Florida Folly

"Interesting article and would may be more effective had it included other examples of "mistakes". The only example provided was what appeared to be commentary based on limited metrics, i.e., "transaction volume had stopped declining and bouncing along the bottom" and perhaps a base metric to indicate a change in current market conditions. There are many more indicators (absorption rates, affordability indexes, etc.) that may have either supported or dispelled that claim or helpful for the writer to discuss."

Thanks for the comment.

In order to provide you with a broader understanding of Fishkind’s “mistakes” I have included 5 excerpts from articles taken off a Google search which provide an augmented understanding of his economic analysis dating from 2004 through 2008.  The dates, titles and excerpts clearly document his record.  None relate to his famous October 2007 declaration.


Whatever methodology or indicators Fishkind has based his housing predictions on, he has been consistently wrong.

The Depression is the defining economic event of Mr. Fishkind’s lifetime.  He missed its arrival, misdiagnosed the event as it has played out and still doesn’t understand what is happening within the housing market.

Fishkind claims to be an expert on the Florida market.  The Housing Collapse in the state is the defining economic event of his career.  An understanding of economic reality, or competent analysis of the housing market and its trends, would have led a capable economist to predict anything other than “the bottom”, which Fishkind has repeatedly declared for years. 

Plenty of experts missed the prelude to the collapse due to the illogical assumption that housing prices could not drop; derived primarily from the observation that they had not done so in 60 years.

Few economists, other than those overtly paid to do so, made such poorly justifiable or horribly wrong predictions.  And only one, by my count, has concocted a pathetically inconsistent excuse for his failings.

November 19, 2004
Is Investing in Florida A Risky Proposition?

“He doesn't believe there will be any general drop in prices.“


December 14, 2006
Fishkind words: Housing prices will stop falling

“I don’t see a price collapse,” Fishkind said. “What I see is a flattening of prices.”


July 26, 2007
Hank Fishkind: Other economists wrong – housing on slow upswing

“The state’s housing markets hit bottom months ago and are now on a slow return to normalcy.”


February 6, 2008
Economist Optimistic For Florida Housing

“The Tampa Bay area is months away from the bottom of the downturn in the single family housing market, and prices aren't expected to fall further”

"This is what the bottom looks like,"


October 8, 2008
Economist: Now the housing market has hit bottom

“It just keeps banging along the bottom,” he said. “Certainly, I couldn’t anticipate the financial panic.”

The 32 comments posted in response to this article are hysterical!