I am a crackpot with a rinky-dink blog.  I enjoy baseball, football, great food, quality coffee, European beer, Slurpees, travel, history, architecture, reading, writing, the beach and have a disturbing affinity for all things plaid.

Despite being a harbinger of economic doom and gloom since the Summer of 2005, I was consistently optimistic about the future of the United States.  I viewed the inevitable reversal of unsustainable economic distortions during a Global Depression as a good thing.  I assumed that once asset values deflated to sustainable levels, excess credit was eliminated, and glorified momentum investors had been exposed as frauds, the World would be returned to the competent and once again be governed by merit and substance. 

It did not occur to me to start a blog while I was developing and proselytizing my economic expectations.  When I finally considered the idea, I was unable to generate a compelling reason to engage in the activity.  I am not self-promotional, (which may be difficult to believe given my current prattling) and was perfectly content articulating my understanding of the economy and predictions for the future amongst family, friends and co-workers.

Origin of TheAffordableMortgageDepression.com

I chose to begin publishing The Affordable Mortgage Depression in October 2008 for several reasons.

1. I had resigned from my job as an investment banker and was (and continue to be) unemployed.  At the time I was waiting for my UK work visa application to be approved.
2. The fantasy baseball season had just ended in September and I suddenly found myself in possession of a few extra hours a day.
3. The Government’s response to the inevitable deflation of the Housing, Credit and Consumer Spending Bubbles infuriated me.  I believed that the unified efforts to re-inflate the financial bubble, prevent the markets from clearing, extend credit to the overleveraged, distribute stimulus checks, increase government spending, and bail-out or nationalize companies would have the effect of making our economic situation worse. 
4. I recognized that the economic downturn was being manipulated for political gain and the causes of the crisis were being grossly mischaracterized.  The Government largely created our Housing and Banking problems.  Yet when the pain from this intervention materialized, policy makers used the volatility expediently to blame, and attempt to further subvert, the free markets. 

Goals

I do not expect my perspective to have any influence.  But there is a persistent lack of understanding about the origins and forces which created The Affordable Mortgage Depression.  My intention is to:

     •  Demonstrate when the Housing Bubble actually began
     •  Explain what caused the Housing, Consumer Spending and Credit Bubbles
     •  Highlight the mechanisms that allowed the phenomenon to develop and persist
     •  Document the fundamental economic distortions which the bubbles produced
     •  Describe what will inevitably occur as these distortions reverse themselves 
     •  Achieve the above goals in a quirky, humorous, self-deprecating and (hopefully) entertaining fashion

I am further attempting to demonstrate that the political response to the economic downturn will be as damaging, if not more so, than the Depression itself.  Government intervention within the mortgage and lending industries created both the Housing Bubble and the current economic downturn.  Given this understanding, rapidly expanding Government regulation and centralized economic control is a frightening prospect. 

Finally, I find the intellectual exercise of performing housing market and economic analysis to be entertaining.  This blog has proven to be an excellent way to channel my ongoing frustration and preserve what little remains of my sanity.

For a decade I have demonstrated an ability to predict future economic events, and solve challenging financial and valuation problems based on a thorough understanding of relevant issues.  My economic expectations regarding the Global Depression, based on my Affordable Mortgage thesis, have been validated from 2005 through the present.  I continue to believe my vision of impending future events will be born out based on this framework for understanding our current economic reality.

Professional Meanderings

Some of my career experiences include working in San Francisco during the Internet Bubble, New York City during September 11th, and Florida during the Housing Bubble.  If you would like to destroy a specific region’s economy, I am presently evaluating relocation destinations and am open to suggestions.

While in college my only job interview was with Enron and after earning my graduate degree I went to work for Lehman Brothers.  So my powers of devastation extend to individual companies as well.

I have an MBA from Yale (Finance & Strategy), a BA from Vanderbilt (Economics) and hold the CFA Designation.

In 2004 I developed a solution to the employee stock option valuation problem created by the adoption of FAS 123.  (Business Method Patent Pending)  This was a challenge undertaken by numerous institutions including investment banks, accounting firms, academics, lawyers, the high-tech industry (including Sun, Intel, Genentech, Qualcomm, Dell, etc…) and Coca Cola without success. 

Under a non-disclosure agreement I pitched the solution to Cisco System’s lobby, the International Employee Stock Option Coalition, in Washington D.C.  Three weeks later Cisco approached the SEC with my proposal.  Six weeks after this meeting Cisco released the idea publicly and it appeared on the front page of the business section of the New York Times and in the Wall Street Journal. 

I spent most of 2008 attempting to move to London to find gainful employment with a hedge fund.  Unfortunately some bean-counting, egg-headed bureaucrat with the UK Immigration Office denied my Highly Skilled Migrant Program visa application, for which I was fully qualified, on the grounds that “Americans pay taxes on an October to September fiscal year”.  A tax attorney citing IRS statutes was unable to convince them of their factual error in the course of an appeal.  The entirety of the process consumed 11 months, was exceptionally boring and extraordinarily frustrating.  I would still love to live and work in London and hope to someday realize this goal.

At present (March) I am intrigued by the possibility of moving to Singapore.  I believe this city-state to have a bright economic future (regardless of its present challenges); something I am not as sure of when it comes to the United States.  I think working in Singapore would provide an interesting personal and rewarding professional experience.  As such, I am presently evaluating a trip to the region to search for productive opportunities.

Update (July):  Given local economic conditions (primarily the collapse in global trade), I was unable to find a single finance professional on the ground in Singapore who was supportive of the idea of my relocation.  A disapointing outcome, but far preferable to moving and discovering the dismal employment environment after the fact.  I have refocused my job search in the U.S. on a small number of markets which I am hopeful will prove receptive.