A 2004 Report on the Outlook for the Housing Industry

This is one of the worst serious efforts to predict the future of all-time.  While the perspectives advanced were obviously self-serving, the authors are supposedly sophisticated economists, housing experts, and work for some of the most important housing-related organizations in the world.

A link to the document is included below:

America's Very Optimistic Home Forecast

Entertaining excerpts from the analysis are included for your benefit.


America’s Home Forecast:
The Next Decade for Housing and Mortgage Finance

Published by the Homeownership Alliance

Written By:

David Berson - Chief Economist, Fannie Mae
David Lereah - Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors®
Paul Merski - Chief Economist, Independent Community Bankers of America
Frank Nothaft - Chief Economist, Freddie Mac
David Seiders - Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders

The Next Decade for Housing and Home Finance (2004-2013)
The housing sector has been a pillar of strength for the U.S. economy in recent years, limiting the depth of the 2001 recession and leading the economic recovery since then. Throughout this period, the housing sector has made major contributions to growth in economic output as well as to job creation.

Housing has bolstered the economy through two major channels. First, robust home sales and housing production, together with the financing of these activities, contributed substantially to economic growth and job creation in recent years. Second, strong rates of house price appreciation generated massive increases in the wealth of America’s homeowners, strengthening not only household balance sheets but also the psyche of current and prospective homeowners in an era of financial market turmoil. Furthermore, historically low mortgage interest rates made it possible for millions of homeowners to borrow against their accumulated housing equity in order to support spending on home improvements and a broad range of consumer goods and services.

Repeated record levels of home sales have resulted in progressively higher homeownership rates; indeed, this rate hit an all-time high of 68.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003. There has been a marked shift of households from renters to first-time owners, greatly expanding the financial and societal benefits that flow from widespread homeownership in the U.S.

Mortgage Demand and Supply
America has the best housing finance system in the world. This system taps into the global capital markets to assure that a steady, low-cost source of funds is continually available to finance the needs of the housing market and America’s families. The mortgage credit needs of America’s families are primarily determined by the growth in the number of households, the anticipated rise in the homeownership rate, appreciation in home values and greater leveraging of the housing stock.

Home Prices – Home price appreciation should average around 5 percent per year from 2004-2013, but could be above 6 percent if supply constraints continue to tighten.

Homeownership During the Next Decade
Owning a home embodies the promise of individual autonomy as well as material and emotional well-being, ideas integral to the aspirations of most American households.
Homeownership allows households to accumulate wealth and social status, and is the basis for a number of positive social, economic, family and civic outcomes. The more than two-thirds of all U.S. households who own their home currently are enjoying these benefits. While challenges exist, an increasing number and share of households will take advantage of the benefits of owning a home during the next decade.

• A careful analysis of these trends suggests that the homeownership rate will increase over the next decade, exceeding 70 percent by 2013. The size of the increase will be affected by several factors including gains by racial and ethnic groups with historically low ownership rates and the extent to which aging baby boomers choose to remain in their homes.
• A rising homeownership rate will translate into at least 10 million additional homeowners by 2013 with roughly one half of the gain accruing to minority households.

Could national home prices decline?
One factor that is sometimes overlooked in discussions of housing markets is the importance of regional heterogeneity. Despite the national integration of mortgage finance, housing markets display considerable heterogeneity. Location still matters.

Following the extraordinarily positive performance of housing markets on a national basis over the past few years, there were some analysts who feared that there was a national housing bubble, which would inevitably be followed by a national collapse in house prices. The heterogeneity referred to above strongly suggests that this is an implausible scenario. While it is possible that select regional markets can display signs typical of an overheated market – homes selling above list prices, buyers quickly flipping properties, continued gains in prices as unsold inventories rise – it would be very difficult for this to occur on a national basis. As a result, while there may be price declines in certain markets that had risen too quickly, there is little possibility of a widespread national decline since there is no national housing market.

No sign of a national home price bubble
There has not been a single year over the past half century in which the national average home value has declined in the U.S. This is a period that has included periods of both severe recession and high mortgage rates, or both (as occurred during 1981-1982 when the unemployment rate exceeded 10 percent and mortgage rates reached 18 percent). In fact, the last sustained drop in national average home values occurred during the Great Depression, when the unemployment rate hit 25 percent. With the national unemployment rate below 6 percent, mortgage rates low and economic growth improving, the likelihood of a decline in home prices at the national level is quite remote.

Conclusion
Homeownership drives the economy, creating millions of jobs and generating billions of dollars in wages and tax revenues each year. Homeownership plays a crucial role in providing individual financial security for millions of Americans. With homeownership rates at an all-time high of more than 68 percent, the value and importance of owning a home cannot be overstated.

• Robust demand will require the production of about two million new housing units per
year.
• The national homeownership rate will rise above today’s record level and most likely will exceed 70 percent by 2013.
• Home price appreciation should average around 5 percent a year from 2004-2013 but
could be above 6 percent if supply constraints continue to tighten.
• Mortgage originations are projected to average nearly $3 trillion per year, and residential mortgage debt is projected to grow close to an 8.25 percent annualized rate.

The Homeownership Alliance believes every family in America should have the opportunity to own a home. Despite record high homeownership rates in the United States, millions are striving to reach the American dream of homeownership. Efforts must be expanded to increase homeownership opportunities. To ensure more Americans can realize the American dream and become homeowners, policy-makers should ensure that the United States continues to have the most efficient, cost-effective housing finance system in the world.

 

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