We are two and a half months into Hank Fishkind’s latest prediction of economic recovery. Mr. Fishkind, a Florida-based economist and comedian, has assembled an impressive record misdiagnosing the Housing Market and underestimating the damage caused by its collapse over the past six years. << MORE >>

According to a revision in today’s report, from March 2008 to April 2009 1.2 million more jobs were lost than had been previously reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. << MORE >>

One of the nation’s biggest mortgage industry players repeatedly warned the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and other bank regulators during the housing bubble that the U.S. faced an imminent housing crash. But bank regulators not only ignored the group's warnings, top Fed officials also went on the airwaves to say the economy was "building on a sturdy foundation" and a housing crash was "unlikely." << MORE >>

The Case-Shiller 10-City Index remains 33% above inflation-adjusted, pre-bubble levels. Seven out of 19 scrutinized markets remain overvalued by at least 31.5% relative to the 1997 base value. << MORE >>

When it comes to regretting a purchase, one in five who used the government’s $4,500 incentive said they now wish they hadn’t. The buyer's remorse rate for non-Clunkers buyers was one in 20. << MORE >>

The Four Largest Budget Deficits in U.S. History << MORE >>

For the first time in U.S. history more public sector employees (7.9 million) belong to a union than do private sector employees (7.4 million), despite there being 5 times as many workers in the private sector. << MORE >>

The legacy of steroid-induced GDP gains may be to accelerate the onslaught of debilitating inflation even as the real economic damage has yet to be halted or reversed. This is the economic crime being perpetuated against the American people by a political administration that does not understand how wealth is created, where jobs come from or why the economy continues to suffer despite make-believe GDP gains. << MORE >>

"Ten months into the government’s third program in two years to stop a record wave of foreclosures, homeowners, housing counselors, consumer advocates and attorneys working with borrowers report that the latest effort is falling far short of its goal." << MORE >>

In December existing home sales declined by the largest amount (month-to-month) in 40 years. Based on media reports, politicians, institutional economists and housing cheerleaders were apparently surprised by steepness of the collapse, but drew solace in year-over-year gains (I guess they were worried that housing sales would decline forever?). << MORE >>

What is the worst case scenario if in fact we were to see housing prices come down substantially across the country? Ben Bernanke: "Well I guess I don’t buy your premise. It’s a pretty unlikely possibility. We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So what I think is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize. Might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s going to drive the economy too far from its full employment path though. I am hopeful that, confident in fact, that the bank regulators will play close attention to the kinds of loans that are being made, making sure that underwriting is done right. But I do think that this is mostly a localized problem and not something that is going to affect the national economy." << MORE >>

Today houses are cheaper than they have been since 2003. Yet, based on a thorough understanding of the fundamentals which determine housing prices, there may never have been a worse time to purchase a home. << MORE >>

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In what I am describing as a Political Miracle, the Democrats have been deprived of their ability to force through economically devastating public policy which would have the effect of permanently impairing job creation and real GDP growth, limiting an eventual recovery and risking an unnecessarily prolonged Depression. Much damage has already been done, and I do not expect the Government to take the proper response to the downturn pre or post the November 2010 election. But it is possible that we may avoid the creation of new legacy burdens, similar to those imposed on the country during The Great Depression, which even today risk our nation’s solvency. For the first time since October 2008 I feel hopeful that the Government’s contribution to intensifying economic damage may be limited. << MORE >>

Consumer credit is contracting rapidly and on a sustained basis for the first time since the end of The Great Depression. << MORE >>

Consumer credit fell by $17.5 billion in November the largest decline in US history. Since January 2009 consumer credit has been plummeting uninterrupted. << MORE >>

Spend a lot or spend nothing at all, it didn't matter, the AP analysis showed: Local unemployment rates rose and fell regardless of how much stimulus money Washington poured out for transportation, raising questions about Obama's argument that more road money would address an "urgent need to accelerate job growth." << MORE >>

"Markets are too dependent on unsustainable government stimulus. Something's got to give." << MORE >>

It has only been 10 months since Congress last increased the debt ceiling by $800 billion to $12.1 trillion. The latest "raising of the so-called roof" will serve as a momentary patch until policy makers can inflate the ceiling again by an additional, contemplated $1.7 trillion. The thinking goes that an almost $2 trillion combined increase would likely be enough to forestall a further expansion until after the mid-term Congressional election in November 2010. After which perpetual further expansions will follow. << MORE >>

Since much of Gross Domestic Product is Government activity, politicians may arbitrarily end a recession merely by spending enough money to grow the figure. The reality that the increase is due to increased deficits and debt are immaterial to the calculation of growth. Private sector job losses may be easily overcome by an expansion of the public sector. Spending $24,000 of taxpayer money to entice an individual consumer to buy a new $26,000 car is rewarded through the fiction of GDP expansion. << MORE >>

“I believe that the tools available to the banking agencies, including the ability to require adequate capital and an effective bank receivership process are sufficient to allow the agencies to minimize the systemic risks associated with large banks. Moreover, the agencies have made clear that no bank is too-big-too-fail, so that bank management, shareholders, and un-insured debt holders understand that they will not escape the consequences of excessive risk-taking. In short, although vigilance is necessary, I believe the systemic risk inherent in the banking system is well-managed and well-controlled.” - Ben Bernanke, 2005 << MORE >>

The big news out of Copenhagen last week was that this decade is set to be the warmest on record. According to Vicky Pope, head of the Met Office, “This tells us that global warming is still rising”. The leading advocates of Global Warming constantly cite observations of rising temperatures as proof of the phenomenon. << MORE >>

There are thousands of former investment bankers, real estate investors, blackjack dealers and construction laborers who have been hired on a part-time basis at HoneyBaked Ham, UPS and fruitcake factories nationwide. These people are momentarily considered to be employed but will again be counted amongst the jobless come January. << MORE >>

11/3/08 "The fourth quarter of 2008 and a disappointing Christmas season will likely be the events that trigger both real economic damage and a capitulation by many employers. Disappointing retail sales will trigger widespread layoffs in the first quarter, and a steady and growing number of bankruptcies throughout the year. Unemployment will increase dramatically during 2009" << MORE >>

If a Jobs Summit has any chance of producing benefit, wouldn’t it have been a better idea to hold one prior to spending $800 billion on Stimulus purported to limit unemployment? << MORE >>