The Affordable Mortgage Depression
Government policies were designed to increase homeownership. Affordable Mortgages, created to realize this goal, were responsible for the Housing Bubble and distorted the economy. The unwinding of these distortions will result in a Global Depression.
The Affordable Mortgage Depression

March 2012 Case Shiller Price Index Analysis for 19 Legacy Markets

New York, Los Angeles and Chicago establish new Post-Bubble Lows << MORE >>

Chart Depicting 12 Month Change in Housing Price Index - Monthly Data Over the Past 15 Years

Monthly data depicting annual (12 month) price changes of the 10 City Case Shiller Price Index. Clearly illustrates timing and scale of the Boom, Bust, Stimulus Distortion, and ongoing Market Correction. << MORE >>

10 of 19 Case-Shiller Markets Have Fallen Below Inflation-Adjusted, January 1997 Levels. 13 out of 20 Markets are below levels which preceded the Obama Stimulus-driven, mini housing bubble.

Today housing prices are plummeting and 13 of the 20 Case-Shiller markets have fallen below the index level which preceded the Obama distortion, leaving 3 years worth of home buyers (and many purchasers who would otherwise not have bought homes) unnecessarily underwater. << MORE >>

Congratulations to America’s Worst Economist (*) Henry Fishkind! He Predicted that Unemployment Claims Would Fall Below 350,000 by November, 2009… and They Did… in 2012… Two Years and Three Months After He Declared They Would.

Not Bad for an Economist Who Has Been Consistently Wrong Since 2004. << MORE >>

Excerpt from Bloomberg Editorial: "Buffett's $7M Sacrifice Is Only a Start"

"We have tried federal stimulus spending, which yielded little more than a sugar high. We have tried propping up the stock market and home prices with record-low interest rates from the Federal Reserve, hurting savers as well as retirees and anyone else living on a fixed income." << MORE >>

CBO Projections Show Little Improvement in Unemployment Rate Through 2013; Stimulus Spending Ineffective

The CBO projects unemployment to fall by less than 1% over the next two and a half years, to approximately 8.2% at the end of 2013. << MORE >>

Crack in Sidewalk, Thought to Be from Earthquake, Gives Obama Another Excuse for Missing Economic Recovery

After several hours of hunting, reporters found and photographed this sidewalk crack in Virginia (which may or may not have been caused by the earthquake). Until this devastation is fixed by a new National Infrastructure Bank, at a cost of a few hundred billion dollars, it is hard to imagine an economic recovery catalyzing anywhere near this particular piece of asphalt. Standard 600 Photobucket << MORE >>

It Only Took $107 Billion of Federal Reserve Loans to Save Morgan Stanley

"I don't think Morgan Stanley survives the weekend" - 10/10/08 Standard 600Standard 600 Photobucket Standard 600 Short Sidebar Fill "Federal Reserve Error in Your Favor - Collect $107 Billion" << MORE >>

Housing Prices, Already at Post-Stimulus Lows, Are Poised to Fall for 9 Consecutive Months

Instead of stabilizing the housing market, buyers who paid overvalued prices, courtesy of Federal subsidies, will contribute a new source of foreclosures to the backload of distressed properties resulting from the Housing Bubble, further extending The Affordable Mortgage Depression. << MORE >>

Consumer Confidence Falls to New Low Last Enjoyed During the Carter Administration

Chart of Thomson/University of Michigan consumer confidence data from January 1978 through early August 2011. << MORE >>

Federal Reserve Acknowledges that The Affordable Mortgage Depression Will Persist Into 2013. Maintains Ineffective Interest Rate Policy.

While it is encouraging that the Fed has finally recognized that this persistent downturn will not be resolved until 2013, Bernanke continues to rely on policies which never had any chance of resolving the downturn, and have been proven to be ineffective over the past four years. << MORE >>

Bank of America's Woes Discussed in November of 2008

Everything an investor needed to know about Bank of America's ongoing troubles was available following a tragically misguided acquisition bender.<< MORE >>

Four Logically Inconsistent Reactions to the Credit Downgrade

If the rating agencies are incompetent, then why aren't the ratings advocated by Moody’s and Fitch also being questioned? Is it not possible that Moody’s and Fitch are the ones getting it wrong? << MORE >>

History Repeating Itself

"Now, gentlemen, we have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. And I have just one interest, and if I am wrong, as far as I am concerned, somebody else can have my job. I want to see this country prosperous. I want to see people get a job. I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises. … I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started. And an enormous debt to boot!" Short Sidebar Fill Short Sidebar Fill Short Sidebar Fill Henry Morgenthau, Jr. - May 9, 1939 Standard 600 Photobucket << MORE >>

It Took Two Centuries for the United States to Earn Its "Risk Free" Credit Rating. It Took the Obama Administration Two and a Half Years to Destroy That Rating.

...imagine what the President could do for the country in eight years. << MORE >>

The July 2011 Unemployment Report: “Rats Flee Sinking Ship! Government Observes That Rat Population Has Declined!”

If the Participation Rate were the same as it was in January 2009, and 4.2 million Americans reentered the Civilian Labor Force, the Unemployment Rate would be 11.5%. << MORE >>

There Is No Economic Recovery

"Spending huge sums of money that we don’t have, burdening our economy with the liability of having to service and repay another trillion dollars of debt, all to create a few government dependent jobs which produce no real economic value will do nothing to alleviate any of the economy’s problems. What it will do is distort the economy further, obscure what is really transpiring, slow down the economy’s inevitable reset, deepen the economic crisis and threaten the US Government’s solvency and credit rating.” - 2/10/2009 << MORE >>

Homeowner's Equity: How Low Can It Go?

How leveraged does an asset class have to be before it is only suitable for Accredited Investors? << MORE >>

Why the Housing Depression Can Not End Before 2014: Four Updated Charts

It appears (as argued since 2008) that Obama/Bernanke have extended the housing depression by years to no productive end. << MORE >>

Updated Chart: Stimulus Spending Unemployment Projections Versus Reality

The Unemployment Rate remains 2.3% above what was marketed to justify Stimulus Spending. << MORE >>

Homeownership Losses Will Continue Through 2014

It is interesting that massive housing subsidies from the Stimulus Bill and Federal Reserve policies succeeded in temporarily propping-up overvalued prices, but have failed to stem the collapse of artificial homeownership. << MORE >>

Updated Case-Shiller Market-Specific Analysis for March 2011

The Los Angeles Price Index still needs to decline by 38.1% to reach its inflation-adjusted, pre-bubble valuation. << MORE >>

Updated Chart: Housing Prices Remain Wildly Overvalued Due to 27 Months of Subsidization

The 10-City Price Index Remains 38% Overvalued << MORE >>

Case Shiller Index Analysis - January 2011

The two year long Stimulus/Federal Reserve price distortion has been exhausted. Price declines have resumed, which otherwise would have continued uninterrupted since the Spring of 2009. << MORE >>

Housing Armageddon Arrives Just in Time for the Holidays

Most home buyers who received the federal housing tax credit will soon be underwater on their mortgages. Happy holidays! << MORE >>

The Housing Bubble: A Modern Greek Tragedy

The Government's rigid understanding of homeownership defied the dynamic nature of markets and the immutable laws of economics. By changing market conditions, increasing demand, triggering a rapid and accelerating rise in prices, and embracing so-called innovative, affordable mortgage characteristics, well intentioned politicians seeking to realize a social agenda fundamentally distorted the housing market. Standard 600 Short Sidebar Fill "Policy Makers Kill the Golden Goose of Homeownership" Standard 600 Congress Kills the Golden Goose of Homeownership << MORE >>

The Arbitrarily Defined "Technical Recession" Is Over. But the Depression Marches On as Consumer Credit Continues Its Steepest Decline Since World War II

It is the observation of this forum that, given the arbitrary definition of a "technical recession" employed by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the U.S. need never again experience one simply by engineering GDP growth every other quarter. Perpetual pretend prosperity brought to you through the magic of debt accumulation! << MORE >>

Politicians Have Delayed a Resolution to the Housing Crisis by Two Years and Manufactured a New Source of Economic Damage

The unforgiveable tragedy of the past two years is that prices would have continued to migrate towards sustainable levels had the Government not manipulated demand. << MORE >>

The Interesting Case for an October Stock Market Correction. Part 1: Introduction and a 15 Month Correlation With 1936 and 1937

Should the 15 month correlation continue, a stock market correction would commence on approximately October 1st. << MORE >>

Link to "Your Fat Paycheck Keeps Neighbors Unemployed" by Kevin Hassett

"A number of reasons help explain why wages don’t and won’t drop, beginning with federal and state minimum-wage laws" << MORE >>
Blog Software
Blog Software